Cycles: The Science of Prediction by Edward R. Dewey, Edwin F. Dakin

By Edward R. Dewey, Edwin F. Dakin

2010 Reprint of 1947 version. In 1947 Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin released their e-book Cycles: The technological know-how of Prediction which argued the us economic system was once pushed via 4 cycles of alternative size. Dewey committed his existence to the examine of cycles, claiming that "everything that has been studied has been came across to have cycles present." He performed vast reviews of cyclicity in fiscal, geological, organic, sociology, actual sciences and different disciplines. due to his learn, Dewey asserted that possible unrelated time sequence frequently had related cycles sessions current and that after they did the part of those cycles was once often very comparable (cycle synchrony). He additionally acknowledged that there have been many cycles with sessions that have been similar by means of powers or items of two and three. Dewey understood his cycle idea to be capable to realizing what the industry goes to do and of predicting what may well come.

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Extra info for Cycles: The Science of Prediction

Sample text

Railroad mileage Year Mileage 1860 1880 1900 30,626 93,267 258,784 Source: Hogan, 1971, pp. 112, 114, 305, and Temin 1964, p. 275. chief product of Bessemer steel, rails led to the early and fairly rapid adoption of the Bessemer process. The other parts of the railroad system using steel were the locomotives and cars. The production of locomotives rose from 300 in 1838 to 1,962 in 1880, and to 3,153 in 1900. At first, these machines were made mainly of iron but later mainly of steel. The amount of steel used in freight cars increased; it was not as much steel replacing iron as steel replacing wood.

Steel), but smaller competitors such as Bethlehem, Republic, and Armco also grew significantly. To examine these issues, we follow our standard taxonomy by first analyzing changes in the product and its production and the steel customers. Next, the activities of the competing steel companies are scrutinized. After that, we examine substitutes and the steel input markets (iron ore, coal, and labor). Finally, government actions toward steel are analyzed, and a conclusion follows. Growth and the production process In this section, innovations in the production process are described.

However, transportation costs and specialized demands counteracted somewhat the effect of scale economies. In this situation, firms with seemingly safe geographic and product niches often became vulnerable to competition. Consequently, the number of firms fell off. Nevertheless, some high-cost firms stayed in the industry or returned to the market when price went back up. This occurred because of the very high fixed cost structure of these firms. If fixed costs were high, variable costs were a small part of the total.

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