Decision Modeling Using Excel, Course Notes, Spring

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000 =SUMPRODUCT($G$7:$G$9,Q6:Q8) =IF(K10=MAX(K10,N10,Q10),"Red Portalo",IF(N10=MAX(K10,N10,Q10),"Blue Norushi","Yellow Standard")) Sensitivity Analysis U V W X 1 Sensitivity Analysis Data Tables 2 Life Span Rate (10 to 100) 3 4 W9 Output Formula: =J12 5 Column Input Cell: F7 6 7 Life Span Rate Best 8 9 10 Yellow Standard 10 15 Yellow Standard 11 20 Yellow Standard 12 25 Yellow Standard 13 30 Yellow Standard 14 35 Yellow Standard 15 40 Yellow Standard 16 45 Yellow Standard 17 50 Yellow Standard 18 55 Blue Norushi 19 60 Blue Norushi 20 65 Blue Norushi 21 70 Blue Norushi 22 75 Blue Norushi 23 Base Case 80 Blue Norushi 24 85 Blue Norushi 25 90 Blue Norushi 26 95 Blue Norushi 27 100 Blue Norushi 28 Y Z AA Color Rate (0 to 75) Z9 Output Formula: =J12 Column Input Cell: F9 Color Rate Best 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Blue Norushi Blue Norushi Blue Norushi Blue Norushi Blue Norushi Blue Norushi Blue Norushi Blue Norushi Blue Norushi Blue Norushi Yellow Standard Yellow Standard Yellow Standard Yellow Standard Yellow Standard Yellow Standard 26 R Base Case Monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim Introduction RiskSim is a Monte Carlo Simulation add-in for Microsoft Excel 97 (and later versions of Excel) for Windows and Macintosh.

RiskSim provides random number generator functions as inputs for your model, automates Monte Carlo simulation, and creates charts. , annual profit). RiskSim automates the simulation by trying hundreds of what-ifs consistent with your assessment of the uncertainties. To use RiskSim, you (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) create a spreadsheet model optionally use SensIt to identify critical inputs enter one of RiskSim's nine random number generator functions in each input cell of your model choose Tools | Risk Simulation from Excel's menu specify the model output cell and the number of what-if trials interpret RiskSim's histogram and cumulative distribution charts.

Returns #VALUE! if the argument is not a reference, if the argument is a defined name but not for a reference, or if any cell of the table contains text or is blank. 0001 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Market Demand, x, in units 1 Cumulative Probability, P(X<=x A corporate planner thinks that minimum possible market demand is 1000 units, median is 5000, and maximum possible is 9000. Also, there is a ten percent chance that demand will be less than 4000 and a ten percent chance it will exceed 7000.

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