OECD-FAO agricultural Outlook 2006-2015 by Food and Agriculture Organization OECD

By Food and Agriculture Organization OECD

This 12th version of the annual Agricultural Outlook - and the second one ready together with the FAO - presents an evaluate of agricultural industry customers in line with projections that stretch to 2015 for creation, intake, exchange, st

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Maize use for ethanol production in the US is projected to increase by 65% until 2010 and by 85% until 2015, raising its share in US coarse grains use to more than one-fourth. This reflects assumed high crude oil prices in the first years of the Outlook, as well the fact that the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) has been signed into law in 2005. This law has changed standards in favour of ethanol and other biofuels and increased mandated biofuel consumption quantities. Growth in the production of ethanol is expected to generate additional cereal demand in other countries as well, but quantities are generally less important for global markets.

International cereal prices are expected to move only little in nominal terms over the coming decade. This is particularly true for wheat, much of which is destined for food rather than for feed and/or industrial use. Coarse grains prices are likely to benefit from strong demand for feed and expansion in industrial use, especially for ethanol production. Rice prices have continued to increase in the recent years and are now more than 50% higher compared to their 2000 low on an annual basis. 1).

4 bn litres) in 2012. While livestock production is projected to increase rapidly around the globe, higher feed efficiency and a declining share of relatively inefficient grain-fed beef production 36 OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2006-2015 – ISBN 92-64-02460-3 – © OECD/FAO 2006 2. CEREALS results in a declining use of cereals per kilogramme of meat and dairy product produced. In spite of its continued importance in total cereal use, cereal utilization as feed is becoming less of a driving force in sustaining growth in cereal production and trade than in the past.

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