The Dynamic Retention Model for Air Force Officers: New by Michael Mattock, Jeremy Arkes

By Michael Mattock, Jeremy Arkes

The U.S. Air strength (USAF) wishes actual versions to strengthen retention guidelines that make sure the strength has a enough variety of skilled officials to satisfy standards. not like the annualized rate of leaving (ACOL) version, the dynamic retention version (DRM) can be utilized take into consideration the retention impression of the supply of multi-year contracts equivalent to the Aviator Continuation Pay (ACP) application to definite sessions of USAF officials.

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Additional resources for The Dynamic Retention Model for Air Force Officers: New Estimates and Policy Simulations of the Aviator Continuation Pay Program

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Unfortunately there is no record of participation in the ACP program in the personnel data we use to estimate the model. The data do record whether officers choose to stay or leave during any of the years under observation. Given that the exact sequence of contract decisions is unknown, we calculate the probability of observing an officer staying a particular number of years (and then leaving or being censored) by summing over all possible sequences of contract decisions. For example, suppose that we observe that an officer stays for two years and then the data are censored.

Thus, for example, under ACOL, officers are modeled as if they would be willing to take multiyear contracts without any associated bonus, as long as the multiyear contract ends before they plan to leave the service. The ACOL model implies that the officers would not demand any extra compensation in exchange for giving up future options. Here is a slightly more formal treatment of ACOL. In this discussion, the ACOL 2 model is simplified in that the covariates are not included. 5) This is identical to the equation for the DRM.

It exchanges the expectation and maximization operators. This is the feature that makes the ACOL models so tractable in comparison to the DRM. The distributions of Jtm and Jtc are assumed to have mean zero, so the stochastic terms simply drop out of the expressions for the value of staying and the value of leaving for all future periods. This means that computation is much easier, because the model now assumes that the future is certain. Of course this simplification comes with a cost. This model of decisionmaking does not take into account uncertainty about the future, which means that the ACOL family of models (including the option-value model of Ausink and Wise) is intrinsically incapable of modeling the value of career flexibility.

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